Portugal’s 2025 Migrant Expulsion: Campaign Details and Political Implications

On May 4, 2025, Portugal’s caretaker government announced a sweeping campaign to expel an estimated 18,000 undocumented migrants, marking a dramatic shift in the nation’s historically liberal immigration policies. The move comes just weeks before a snap national election on May 18, 2025, amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment and political pressure from the far-right.

Led by Minister of the Presidency António Leitão Amaro, the campaign signals a hardening stance on irregular migration, aligning Portugal with stricter EU policies. This article examines the expulsion plan’s mechanisms, political motivations, and potential consequences for Portugal’s economy, social cohesion, and international reputation.

Portugal Migrant Expulsion: Key Details of the Campaign

1. Scale and Timeline

• The government plans to issue 18,000 expulsion notifications, with the first 4,500 sent on May 5, 2025.

• Migrants have 20 days to either leave voluntarily or appeal their case.

• The operation will unfold in multiple waves, extending over several months.

2. Legal Process and Appeals

• Prime Minister Luís Montenegro insists the process is not forcible deportation but a notification procedure.

• Migrants can challenge their status if they believe they qualify for residency.

• The government guarantees legal assistance and the right to a hearing.

3. Enforcement Measures

• A new National Unit for Foreigners and Borders (UNEF) will oversee deportations.

• Temporary detention centers (CITs) in Lisbon, Porto, and Faro will hold migrants during processing.

• Alternatives to detention include mandatory check-ins, bail, or restricted movement zones.

4. Focus on Human Trafficking

• A special task force will target smuggling networks exploiting undocumented migrants.

• Authorities aim to dismantle illegal labor operations in agriculture and construction.

Why Is Portugal Expelling Migrants Now?

1. Political Pressure Ahead of Elections

• The May 18 snap election was triggered after a no-confidence vote against PM Montenegro.

• The far-right Chega party, now Portugal’s third-largest political force, has pushed for mass deportations.

• Analysts see the expulsion campaign as an attempt to appeal to anti-immigration voters.

2. Backlog in Regularization Cases

• The Agency for Integration, Migration, and Asylum (AIMA) has 400,000 pending applications.

• The public grows increasingly frustrated with delays, viewing them as evidence of immigration mismanagement.

3. Rising Anti-Immigrant Sentiment

• Protests in Lisbon (September 2024) demanded expulsions of criminal migrants.

• Housing shortages and wage stagnation are blamed on immigration, despite data showing migrants contribute €1.8 billion to social security annually.

4. Policy Shift: End of “Manifestation of Interest”

• In June 2024, Portugal scrapped a key regularization pathway that allowed undocumented migrants to gain residency by working and paying taxes.

• Now, non-EU migrants must secure a job contract before entering, mirroring stricter EU policies.

Reactions to Portugal’s Migrant Expulsion Plan

Supporters: “Rule of Law Must Be Enforced”

• André Ventura, leader of Chega, expressed support for the policy, describing it as 'a necessary step.

• Some citizens on social media compare it to Trump-style deportations, expressing approval.

Critics: “Politically Motivated and Inhumane”

• Migrant rights groups warn of xenophobic backlash and family separations.

• The International Organization for Migration (IOM) warns that closing legal pathways increases suffering.

• Labor unions highlight that migrants fill essential jobs in farming, fishing, and tourism.

What Are the Potential Consequences?

1. Economic Disruptions

• Agriculture & Construction: Many sectors rely on migrant labor; expulsions could cause labor shortages.

• Social Security: Migrants contribute far more in taxes than they receive in benefits.

2. Social Unrest

• Protests by migrant communities and allies are likely.

• Far-right groups may escalate anti-immigrant rhetoric.

3. Electoral Impact

• The policy could boost the PSD and Chega but alienate left-wing voters.

• The May 18 election will determine whether this policy continues.

4. International Repercussions

• Strained relations with Brazil, Angola, India, and Nepal, key migrant-sending nations.

• Portugal risks damaging its reputation as a tolerant EU member.

Conclusion: A Turning Point for Portugal?

Portugal’s 2025 migrant expulsion campaign represents a major policy reversal, driven by political opportunism and public discontent. While the government frames it as a necessary enforcement measure, critics see it as a dangerous precedent that could harm Portugal’s economy and social fabric.

The May 18 election will decide whether this hardline approach becomes permanent or if a more balanced immigration policy returns. One thing is clear: Portugal’s identity as a welcoming nation is now at stake.

Key Takeaways

✅ 18,000 migrants targeted for expulsion starting May 2025.

✅ 20-day window to appeal or leave voluntarily.

✅ Political motive: Far-right pressure ahead of May 18 snap election.

⚠️ Risks: Labor shortages, social tensions, international backlash.

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Portugal’s 2025 Migrant Expulsion